After Nigeria's Power Transfer: What Will Be Its Place in Africa's Democratic Growth

 Nigeria's Place in Africa's Democratic Growth: Striving to be a More Perfect Union

Keynote Address

 By

Ambassador (Dr.) Robin Renee Sanders

CEO-FEEEDS Advocacy Initiative and former United States Ambassador to Nigeria, ECOWAS, Republic of Congo, and Director for Africa National Security Council at the White House

                                       May 26, 2015, Port Harcourt, River State

Every now and again there are hallmarks, legacy moments, and periods of time in a country's history. .  .in a country's future, in a country's ability to change and grow. I would argue that this is one of those times in Nigeria -- as a result of your recent elections, and as you embark on a historic, peaceful handover of power to a new set of leaders on May 29, 2015.

You had a seismic shift in your political landscape and your political future in 2015, which has proffered two things:

·      It has proven the naysayers and doubters who thought Nigeria could not have credible elections wrong, not once but twice – as your 2011 and your 2015 elections more than met international observer standards; and,

·      The 2015 election moved Nigeria into a different “league of nations” not just for Africa, but on the world stage.

I made remarks in Washington in both 2011 and early 2015 highlighting two things I know about Nigeria and Nigerians – do not underestimate their "Resilience and Resolve" [I call these the two R's] to get it right despite the range of challenges betwixt and between.   I have always marveled at these two elements which are fundamental to Nigeria's national character.

Granted, despite these two R's [resolve and resilience], we all recognize that there are headwinds…challenges [which you know better than I] in the road ahead as the nation seeks to move forward on development, but equally important, will be to heal political wounds and move past any remaining animosities from the election period. The future well-being of the nation should be at the top of everyone's to-do list.
It was clear with the 2015 election that the Nigerian voter wanted a transparent process. You had that albeit with some irregularities and incidents of violence; but, none, as declared, which fundamentally affected the outcome of the national process.
I wrote after the election that I thought INEC Chairman Jega was Nobel Peace Prize-worthy, and that the Nigerian voters were the super heroes of ensuring that your national elections were both democratic and transparent. May no one ever again question your ability to do so?  

So what is next for the Continent's giant? The President–elect and his team have already outlined "The Buhari Doctrine" turning the mandate, as desired by the Nigerian people, into his top policy priorities – addressing security, corruption, economic issues, energy/fuel needs, and poverty through education and job/entrepreneurial opportunities. But, the watch words now are "patience and support" from both the voter and the international community to provide time to fix, correct, and improve all of the elements outlined in "The Buhari Doctrine" to address the current challenges. The President-elect has asked for this; we all need to support him and his team thus so.

None of what I just said is new. It is all known. So what is the message for today?  What does all this democratic, national, political change mean for Nigeria, moreover for the Continent?
It is – by far and clearly one key thing -- an Opportunity -- an opportunity to fundamentally change the paradigm of Nigeria's political future; to fundamentally change your leadership role on the Continent, and to speak with authority about not only how things should be, but how things can be.
You are an independent sovereign nation, and nothing I say here changes that. You will make you own decisions as a nation, as Nigerians.

So my broader message is in my philosophy about democracy and democracies.  I want to share that with you as it might be useful at this important juncture in your history, but more specifically to address the two-part theme of this anniversary celebration in honor for His Excellency, Governor Amaechi  -- Deepening Democracy in Nigeria- Implications for Development in Africa.  So I will address the themes as such as I share my philosophy about democracy and where it comes from for me.

Deepening Democracy In Nigeria: What is Nigeria's Democratic Philosophy?

Fundamentally, many countries have a philosophy of what they want their democracy to be like, to look like. For Nigeria what are those elements, what is the Democratic philosophy you are going to build into your national character to take advantage this historic political paradigm shift?

The most important democratic phrases to me which have driven my beliefs in both my personal and professional life on democratic processes just so happen to be in the Preamble of United States Constitution. For other Americans it may come from Bill of Rights, other historical or contemporary documents of America. But for me, it comes from the Preamble, the phrases are:

·      "In Order to Form a More Perfect Union;" and, 

·      "We the People." 

I believe in these phrases, even though, at times we have had challenges in the US as a nation, but I truly think it is important to have a democratic philosophy to live by, and upon which to judge yourself and your nation. I am probably inspired by these words more so because I am an African-American and because of the history of African Americans in the U.S. from slavery to today. We, as well as other groups in the US, have faced diversity issues and exclusion throughout times in our history, and we still face some of these challenges today as a nation -- as evident by recent events in Ferguson, Missouri and Baltimore, Maryland this year. But for me, these challenges further underscore how critical having a democratic philosophy can be for a nation: it serves as a compass in both good times, and bad.

Striving to be a More Perfect Union

Let me highlight the applicability of the first phrase [In Order to Form a More Perfect Union] and what that means to me and for me. These are just examples and as Nigerians you will need to decide from this New Dispensation which starts on May 29, 2015 – what your new democratic philosophy will be; how you will deepen it; and, moreover describe it. I have read your Constitution many, many times since I first came to Nigeria in 2008; so your democratic philosophy might come from there or elsewhere from your many inspirational writers.

Nigeria has turned a page already toward a more perfect union; a more perfect federal republic; a more perfect Nigeria. This is part of the democratic deepening called for by the lecture’s theme today and by your historic election, and transition.

Your election has made the world sit up and pay attention and from this point forward you are a role model for the Continent. Don't lose that, build on it, cherish it…embrace it.

We the people

This brings me to the second phrase I hold on to as part of my democratic philosophy – We the people – which actually are the very first three words of the Preamble. I am intentionally addressing these three words last as they inspire me more than any others, and provide me my compass about the role of democracy.   The same precepts apply as I noted above – Nigeria will have to determine the elements of its democratic philosophy to truly "deepen" this New Dispensation.

The reason I am sharing my  very personal thoughts with you about what these three words -- "We the People," – can mean is they underscore that any nation –  yours, mine, your country neighbors, your colleague African nations, your allies, and your nation-partners, your nation-friends – any that consider themselves in the league of democracies in both practice and spirit must not only include, but see and respect all of its nationals, no matter where they live or from what region or ethnic group they are from.

A Nigerian philosophy of "we the people," would mean everyone has an opportunity not to live in poverty or fear, everyone who is a Nigerian is respected as such, and honored as such. It needs to means that everyone along the political spectrum, providing you are not intent on harm, human rights violations, or abuse, has a voice because democracies are also not about one voice, but many…in a word "inclusiveness" -- all political parties and ethnic groups, women, youth, all religions, the disabled, civil society, the media – albeit participating fairly, constructively, transparently, and honestly.

"We the People, in Order to Form a More Perfect Union," is the full weight of that first phrase in the Preamble of the U.S. Constitution, and its represents the vehicles that help me keep my moral, professional and personal compass. But I also believe philosophies like that have helped America deepen its democracy, even when we stumbled…and we have stumbled from time to time.  

The Continent is looking up to you as the standard on both elections and, even more so, on transitions. Your leadership in both deed and philosophy will be even more important as a marker of progress not just domestically but for Africa.  You have a great start; remember mature democracies have two things as regards to elections when a change in political power takes place:

·      A statesman-like concession, as you had from President Jonathan;

·      The grace and leadership of Mr. President-elect Buhari as the victor taking the helm.

Nigeria had both those things.

Implications for Development in Africa

Moving on to the second part in today's theme -- Implications for Development in Africa – ostensibly means what are the development expectations for Nigeria coming out of this election: what they will be on May 30, 2015; the first 100 days, and the first year. Those will be set by Mr. President-elect and his team and he has already mentioned many of those things in the run-up to the handover. The international community, particularly friends like the United States, the UK, China and others will need to be helpful, supportive, and good partners to Nigeria at this time. The importance of Nigeria to the U.S. has always been there. That being said, you already know that Secretary of State John Kerry will lead the U.S. Delegation, which further underscores not just the friendship between our two nations, but how significant your election and the peaceful transition are as positive messages about Nigeria and the African Continent.

You know the positives already in terms of your nation, but let's quickly recap:

You are now the largest African economy; the fourth largest populated country in the world^[i];  singularly you have the world's largest number of mobile phones at 100 million – important for business and education; you are right now the best-practice example of an African election; the premier Africa investment destination; your 30 million middle class [ii]members grow daily; and you have improved access to capital/financial inclusion by 44 percent[iii]. Your leadership in international arenas such as the African Union, in ECOWAS, potentially also at the helm of the African Development Bank, and in New York, you have called for a permanent UNSC seat for Africa -- are all actions of which to be proud.

However, the list of challenges here is a lot longer, and the suffering of the everyday Nigerian is high. Thus, with this new Dispensation and good news also comes the responsibility to "lean forward" more vigorously to address development:

·      Improving security  in the North;

·      Combating corruption;

·      Reducing poverty, as most Nigerians live on naira 290 a day ($1.25), representing about 60 per cent of your population[iv], with the same number of people facing daily food security issues;

·      Addressing education such as having the world's largest number of school-aged children [10 million]not in school; particularly since children under 15 make up 44 per cent of your overall population, and 39 per cent of Nigerian adults cannot read or write;[v]

·      Improving  health systems and providing affordable housing to the 17 million people in Nigeria without good shelter is critical;[vi]

·      Expanding the number of Nigerian Small and Medium Size Enterprises (SMEs) from its current 17 million;[vii]

·      Creating 1.8 million jobs per year from your current 1.2 million just to outpace poverty and keep pace with your population growth;[viii] 

·      Securing energy-fuel needs, including rural electrification, remain one of your most press needs not only for daily living but for your private sector and investors; and an

·      Additional focus needs to be on women and at-risk girls from education to financial inclusion as they both lag behind here on all human index well-being indicators.

Changing any of these issues to the positive side of the ledger will further underscore Nigeria's leadership role on the Continent.

In sum, a new paradigm begins for your nation on May 29, 2015, and Nigerians should be very proud of the example they are setting for Africa and for evolving democracies all over the world. I want to again congratulate Governor Amaechi for his leadership in holding such an important symposium at the dawn of the changing of the political guard in Nigeria.

As I close my remarks, I am extremely proud of Nigeria and have always been in the pro-Nigeria corner way before it became fashionable to be so. I am appreciative of having represented the U.S. Government here, honored to have served as an observer in your 2015 historic, democratic elections, and to be asked to speak here today. I wish the Governor, people of Rivers State, the nation, the outgoing President, and most assuredly President-elect Buhari and Vice-President elect Osinbajo the very best as they lead Nigeria during this landmark period in Nigeria's history.

 I Thank you.

---

[i] http://www.aworldatschool.org/country/nigeria

[ii] Source for SME & job figures: Sept 24, 2014, McKinsey Breakfast on Nigeria, The New York Palace Hotel, New York

[iii]  http://datatopics.worldbank.org/financialinclusion/country/nigeria

 

[iv] http://www.aworldatschool.org/country/nigeria

[v] http://www.aworldatschool.org/country/nigeria

[vi] Source for SME & job figures: Sept 24, 2014, McKinsey Breakfast on Nigeria, The New York Palace Hotel, New York

[vii] Source for SME & job figures: Sept 24, 2014, McKinsey Breakfast on Nigeria, The New York Palace Hotel, New York

[viii] Source for SME & job figures: Sept 24, 2014, McKinsey Breakfast on Nigeria, The New York Palace Hotel, New York

Nigeria’s 2011 Elections: What’s on the Post-Election To-Do List? Improve Education & Health; Build Agriculture & Transform Energy Sector

The majority of international and local civil society observers saw the results of Nigeria’s election series on April 9, April 16, and April 26, 2011, as credible. However, they, along with the opposition also noted irregularities such as underage voting, improperly used ballots, and mishandled/misplaced ballot boxes, coupled with the sad fact of election violence killing nearly 800 as noted by Human Rights Watch (HRW http://tinyurl.com/HRW-Election-Violence). Many of these same irregularities have been cited in past elections since military rule ended more than 30 years ago. However, in 2011, these improper actions were significantly reduced with much of the credit for this positive change going to the well-respected Chairman of Nigeria’s election Commission -- Professor Attahiru Jega.

With a credibility stamp on the overall 2011 election results, even with the irregularities and violence, the post-election landscape is going to be equally as important with the need to address some of the underlying development issues that could have contributed to election violence.

So how to reach out to all Nigerians, particularly the youth and especially the northern youth, so that they feel, as one nation, they can play a part in the country’s future? There are about 45 million youth in today’s Nigeria. And, from now to 2025 that 45 million is likely to reach 62 million if Nigeria’s population trajectory remains on track (http://tinyurl.com/The-Africa-Post-blogitrrs). The post-election landscape will have to focus on some of the FEEEDS® issues, especially food security, education, development, and addressing evolving democracy efforts (e.g. anti-corruption).

Social sector reform in education, health, and housing as well as transformative institution building in those same sectors is needed so that youth and women, in particular, can play key roles in the country’s future. Transparent investment and value chain development in sectors such as agriculture, energy, and infrastructure, including taking renewables and appropriate technology into account, will be fundamental to Nigeria’s advancement over the next 20 years -- or more simply put -- for the nation’s next two generations. Changes in these areas will ensure self-sufficient food security, but also maximize the export potential of key commodities from rice and cassava to maize and cowpeas, including increasing trade of unique national products such as shea butter, palm oil, and coco, to northern Fulani and Hausa crafts, and indigenous textiles like indigo-based adire or ashoke. Addressing all of these issues will create two things: an educated and trained citizenry, and entrepreneurs and/or jobs.

If one travels throughout Nigeria (and I have to all 36 states), particularly in the North where negative human index indicator numbers are much higher (infant mortality, out-of-school girls, malnutrition), there is a visible need to respond to these socio-economic issues to meet the aspirations of young people at the poverty level or in the middle class. The youth, as well as Nigeria’s 74 million women, will need to have employment opportunities (entrepreneurial, vocational, or formal private sector). The young will need to feel hopeful about opportunities -- or at least know there are transparent frameworks (institutions, processes, and regulatory environments) -- allowing them to outline a way forward for their future. People are hopeful when transparent frameworks are in place. Without them, without hope, then there are few alternatives, leading to frustration or in some cases violence that breaks down often along religious and ethnic lines.

Looking at the violence that mostly took place in the North, and the fact that the 12 core Northern States went to opposition presidential candidate, retired General Buhari, (see stark red & green map http://tinyurl.com/Election-Results-Map), underscores the outreach still needed in the region. Two predominately Muslim states in the East, Adamawa and Taraba, went to the President-elect.

It is okay to have political differences within a nation -- most democratic countries do -- as democracy also means respect for differences in views, culture and religion. But differences cannot also include hopelessness because social sectors needs are not met for parts of the population. So what should be on the Post-Election To-Do list?

• Foster transparent frameworks (institutions and societal structures) so that Nigerians, no matter where they live, or what their political, religious or ethnic backgrounds are, believe that they have a level playing field allowing for a better future;

• Rebuild and resource education, adding possibly a universal program similar to nations like Uganda, and certainly include vocational and entrepreneurial training (too few donors assist with these);

• Creative value chain development using models such as Benin’s Songhai, Backpack farms, and programs like MARKETS (see TAP@blogitrrs http://tinyurl.com/The-Africa-Post-Food-Security);

• Improve micro credit and finance mechanisms; Current programs do not meet the high demand, and requirements for lending are too tough for many, especially for small holder farmers, women and entrepreneurs;

• Establish a more reliable and affordable mortgage program so anyone at any point on the social economic scale can count on a framework that provides housing. A viable and affordable mortgage system, available to all, does not exist in today’s Nigeria; Housing is a big issue for many.

All in all, Nigeria’s post election environment represents an opportunity for the country’s leadership to change the key paradigms that will provide a new enabling environment for a new Nigeria. Despite the good macroeconomic news in Nigeria and some visionary Governors (e.g. Lagos, Katsina, Akom Ibom, Rivers, Gombe, etc.), there are real poverty issues for many. I have also seen this poverty firsthand. Also, few job options exist for the educated. If some of the frameworks noted above are transparently addressed, then hopefully, this election -- with its international stamp of credibility -- will be a turning point for many in this nation of 152 million people.

Sanders calls Nigeria's Lagos Governor Fashola an Extraorindary & Visionary Leader

Fashola sees April 2011 election results as credible; Jonathan worked the hardest.

CFA Chairman Straughter, Dr. Robin Renee Sanders, Lagos Governor Fashola, Nigerian Ambassdor to the U.S. Adefuye

I had the honor of personally hosting a luncheon on May 16, 2011 for the newly re-elected Governor of Lagos State, Babatunde Fashola (SAN) at the Army-Navy Club in Washington, D.C. in conjunction with the Constituency for Africa -- one of the leading U.S. advocacy organization focused on Africa. As I introduced the Governor, I underscored the extraordinary commitment, dedication, and vision of this extraordinary leader. The luncheon event was attended by 50 key civil society, academic, and private sector representatives interested in hearing the Governor's vision for one of Nigeria's most important states -- Lagos -- where the capital city of the same name (Lagos) heralds a population of 18 million.

Winning re-election with 82 per cent of the vote, Fashola told the assembled crowd that his vision for the next four years for his State focused on infrastructure development, particularly in mass transport (rail, bus, ferries), the housing and agricultural sectors, as well as on educational and training programs for youth. I have seen personally the transformation of Lagos from 2007-2010 during the time that I lived in Nigeria as a result of Fashola's leadership and I have no doubt that during the next four years he will continue to move the country's commercial capital forward.

Noting to the crowd "the importance of coming and seeing Nigeria first-hand," he told the U.S. group that they could not understand and invest in Nigeria unless they actually came to the country to appreciate the array of investment opportunities there.

In response to a question on the recent Nigerian elections where 22 million of Nigeria's 74 million registered voters participated in the April 2011 voting, Fashola acknowledged the irregularities in some polling places which he said needed to be addressed. He also stressed his concern about the violence that occured, but he added that the outcome of the election was credible and gave high points to President-elect Jonathan for "working the hardest" during the campaign and trying to reach out to Nigerians all across the country.(http://tinyurl.com/Leadership-News-on-Fashola).

In my view, the key now will be the next steps for the country, particularly efforts to address key social sector issues for Nigeria's nearly 64 million youth, and addressing the underlying causes of the violence (need for education, training, better health care, and job opportunities) in the country's north, where according to Human Rights Watch nearly 800 people reportedly lost their lives (http://tinyurl.com/HRW-Election-Violence).

Most Africa watchers recognize the enormous and limitless potential of Nigeria to expand its global and economic leadership, but more needs to be done to address social sector issues and the extraordinary vision, dedication, and commitment by extraordinary individuals such as the results-oriented Governor Fashola of Lagos gives us all hope.

Africare-Atlantic Council-Carnegie Mellon April 19, 2011 Forum on Nigeria’s Legislative & Presidential Elections

Panelists and special speakers at Africare-Atlantic Council-Carnegie Mellon Nigeria Election Forum, from left-to-right: Dr. Gwendolyn Mikell, Mr. Reno Omokri, Mr. Oronto Douglas, Mr. El Rufai, Dr. Robin R. Sanders (former U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria), Ambassador Adefuye (Nigerian Ambassador to the U.S.), Dr. Jendayi Frazer, and Dr. J. Peter Pham.

WASHINGTON, DC, Wednesday, April 20, 2011 – On April 19, Africare, in partnership with the Atlantic Council and Carnegie Mellon University’s Center for International Policy and Innovation (CIPI), organized a forum that focused on the “ Initial Assessment of Nigeria’s 2011 Election.” Most of the panelists were in Nigeria during the recent elections and gave firsthand accounts of what they saw on the ground. Many of the Forum’s presenters were in agreement that these latest elections – both parliamentary and presidential, held April 9th and April 16th respectively – were the most credible and well-organized national elections Nigeria has ever seen since the onset of its democratic experience (the country was ruled by military dictators for 30 years and made moves to establish democratic principles 11 years ago). Most panelists were optimistic about the future of Nigerian elections and noted that the problems identified during the elections could be worked on and did not affect the outcome of the elections.
On the other hand, Mr. Nasir El-Rufai, a prominent Nigerian political figure and former Nigerian Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, cautioned attendees about the dangers of too much self-congratulatory statements, given that there was not only a geographic split in the country in support for the two candidates (most of the North voted for opposition candidate General Buhari), but also that many in the country’s northern region felt that their votes were not reflected in the outcomes of the vote count. El-Rufai did add that the 2011 elections were much improved from the 2007, or 2003 votes, but that more work still needs to be done before they could be considered completely free and fair. El-Rufai continued by calling for even more electoral reforms, specifically electronic balloting and a centralized vote tally location, which would eliminate much of the human element of vote counting and transportation -- thus protecting every Nigerian’s vote.
Other key speakers included Ambassador Jendayi Frazer of Carnegie Mellon and former Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, who gave introductory remarks; Dr. Gwendolyn Mikell, Professor of Anthropology and Foreign Service at Georgetown University and Dr. J. Peter Pham of the Atlantic Council, both who served as official observers of the Nigerian elections; and, Mr. Reno Omokri, Founder, Build Up Nigeria Project, a non-governmental organization focused on youth. The event was moderated by Ambassador Robin R. Sanders, International Affairs Advisor and Communication Outreach Director for Africare, representing Africare’s President Dr. Darius Mans.

Other key speakers included H.E. Adefuye, Ambassador of Nigeria to the United States, and Mr. Oronto Douglas, Senior Special Assistant to President-elect Jonathan whose contributions were also both informative and lively. Overall, panelists agreed that the recent political violence and bloodshed that has taken place since the elections is of grave concern and that all parties should seek peace and address any concerns through legal processes. Key take away points included the importance women played in the voting process as noted by Professor Mikell and the large number of youth who participated in the elections, as mentioned by Mr. Omokri. In addition, the panelists highlighted the importance of the upcoming April 26, 2011, gubernatorial elections and the need for those to not only be peaceful, but also further address some of the challenges that were seen in the April 9th and April 16th elections in order to make them even more transparent. Everyone agreed that Nigerian President-elect Goodluck Jonathan will need to work after the election season to ensure that all disparate groups in Nigeria feel that they have a role to play in nation-building in order to create an environment where the country can grow and prosper politically, socially, and economically.

Video Clip

Happy Birthday Nigeria @50: Celebrate Oct 1; Back to Business Oct 2

Happy Birthday Nigeria! October 1, 2010, is certainly a day to celebrate for all Nigerians as the nation reaches the mature age of 50. Congratulations and Best Wishes. Celebrate and reveal in the importance of this day, but Oct 2 -- after the celebrations are over -- the business at hand is still the elections and doing this one right is a "must-do" in order to once and for all put the naysayers to rest. Giving INEC more time to put all the election processes in place is a step in the right direction as a lot remains to be done (a transparent voter registry of the nearly 74 million potential voters is a good example of one of the key must-do tasks). It is a positive sign that some in the nation are considering the need to move the election date to April 2011 as the INEC Chairman has requested to allow INEC to have more time to put the right processes in place.
Clean and credible elections do make a difference -- not only for this generation, but for the next -- as they set the stage to address and improve the remaining challenges that the country faces, particularly in the areas of improving the use and transparency of national financial resources for development in sectors ranging from education to agriculture (meaning ending corruption). With leaders elected through a credible, non-rigged, transparent process, who themselves are credible, and have the best interest of the nation at hand, then all else is possible --from curbing corruption to improving infrastructural development. It is always important to recognize milestone events in the life of a nation, and October 1, 2010, is such a day, such an event for Nigeria. However, October 2, should be back to the business, as a lot remains to be done between now and Election Day. As noted in an earlier Africa Post entry, Nigerian Resilience and Resolve (the 2 R's) - the country's two most fundamental national character traits -- must come into play in the run up to the 2011 elections. Your friends are counting on you to use those two traits to ensure that after the October 1, 2010, celebrations, that the focus continues on election processes, and all the other Election Checklist issues raised on The Africa Post @ blogitrrs (http://blogitrrs.blogspot.com/2010/09/nigerias-elections-keeping-2-rs-in-mind.html) which includes, but are not limited to the importance of the role of civil society at every step and in every way in the election processes as they are an important watchdog over the process and the election itself. The pressure was on before Nigeria's 50th anniversary to get the election right, and October 2, 2010, the pressure will be even more as reflection takes over from celebration. At a September 29, 2010, symposium in Washington, D.C. on Nigeria @ 50, there were some Nigerians who wondered what the nation had to celebrate. Once can go back throughout history and look at several countries, including the U.S., to see where they were as nations just after 50 years of development. But I would argue what counts now is not dwelling on the past, but focusing on the future so that it is bright, and so that the nation can move forward in its 51st year, and its 52nd year and so on. This can only start with a clean and credible election being the order of the day for the 2011 elections.
(Views expressed on blogitrrs are personal and do represent the views of the U.S. Government.)

Nigeria’s 2011 Elections – Keeping the 2 R’s in Mind: Resilience and Resolve

Road to Nigeria's Elections blogspot series

Do Not Underestimate Nigerian Resilience and Resolve

As Nigeria continues on the path to its critical elections which appears to be slated for April 2011, there are two key things to keep in mind which I call the two R’s: Nigeria’s Resilience and Nigeria’s Resolve. Do not underestimate either. Having just finished up my 3 year tenure there as the U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria (2007-2010), I have always marveled at these two elements which are fundamental to Nigeria's national character. These two elements will also pay a role in the conduct of how Nigeria’s 2011 elections will unfold. Yes, things are heating up in Nigeria’s election landscape and yes there is still a long way to go in ensuring voter registration, political party transparency, and a secure enabling environment for a credible election. But make no mistake – today more than ever Nigerians want a fraud-free election conducted in a secure environment. No one (and this includes Nigerians) underestimates the challenges ahead to get everything done on time, and keeping everything on track. But, what I would argue is important from this point forward until the proposed April 2011 election is working WITH Nigeria and Nigerians to makes this election as successful as possible, not criticizing it this far out from the sidelines – every friend and every partner of Nigeria should be working in lockstep in that direction.
Let’s keep in mind this phrase (one I have always thought about over the last couple of months in Nigeria before the end of my tenure) -- “What a Difference a Year Makes.” With a quick trip down memory lane, last year this time (the Sept-Dec 2009 time period) when many outside of Nigeria were worried about destabilization of the country, many Nigerians in-country (not necessarily all) were confident that the days of military intervention were over. This resolve was inspite of things being very politically murky as worries about the late President Yar’Adua’s illness overtook the nation. There was a sense not only that the country would get through this difficult time (and it did!), but also a strong desire not to repeat history, but continued efforts to try to build a better electoral process. Resilience and Resolve prevailed during this period and we need to continue to call on Nigeria to depend on these two elements of its national character as it moves toward its 2011 election. There is not a Nigerian that does not understand getting this election process right will not only be tough as there is a lot to do in a short amount of time (see The Africa Post August 2010 @blogitrrs). But this is where friends are supposed to come in and do their utmost to support the right actions.
Friends of Nigeria from this point forward should be helping Nigeria get to credible elections. There is a way of doing things in Nigeria that is not always clear from the outside, and no doubt there will be ups and downs until the 2011 election is executed. Things will look uncertain from time to time, and be of concern, but every single step or misstep does not mean a doomsday scenario is unfolding. We need to continue to encourage Nigeria to:
• Support and involve civil society at every turn in the election process;
• Support an active and free press;
• Support parallel vote tabulation or swift vote count by civil society;
• Support all efforts which will promote a violent-free election;
• Support election monitoring by both civil society and international observers; and,
• Support efforts to encourage political parties to have true internal democratization.
Consider the above My “Checklist for Nigeria’s 2011 Election.” I was a Nigeria optimist when I was there as U.S. Ambassador and I will remain one. This does not mean that I will not encourage Nigeria – as a friend and daughter of the Continent – to do things that I hope will continue to build its democracy or state when there are things of concern. This is what friends do, but they do it fairly, forthrightly and with a long term positive goal in mind, but always with mutual respect to this nation of 150 million people. I have a democracy wish list for Nigeria @50 as it reaches its jubilee independence anniversary on October 1, 2010 and outlined clearly the challenges ahead in several speeches (see the Africa Post @ http://blogitrrs.blogspot.com/2010/08/remarks-on-july-291-2010-my-wish-for.html, & http://blogitrrs.blogspot.com/2010/06/dr-robin-r-sanders-remarks-at-vice.html), and my “Checklist for Nigeria’s 2011 Election” above is nothing new. It is what the Chairman of the Nigerian Independent Electoral Commission (INEC), Dr. Jega, Nigerian civil society, and the Nigerian people, who want a clean election, have on their radar screens to try not only to turn the tide of how INEC is viewed, but rebuild the confidence of so many Nigerians in their electoral process. Let’s all work toward supporting Nigeria in achieving these things.
(views on blog from Sept 26, 2010 onward are personal and do not represent the positions of U.S. Government or Africare.)

Tick, Tick…The Clock is Running On Nigeria’s 2011 Elections

This blogspot is part of the series “The Road to Nigeria’s 2011 Elections”

Tick, Tick… What is that sound? Nigeria’s election clock ticking toward a January 2011 election, but much work still needs to be done so that everyone, particularly friends of Nigeria, can begin to exhale that things are on the right track, and moving in the right direction. There has been a mixture of news that shows some progress, but the loudest sound coming from the election clock is the need for a date certain to be set for the election itself by the country’s Independent National Election Commission – more commonly known as INEC. From that point - from that election date - everything else will be determined: how long voter registration can go on, and when the voter registry must be finished.

The last week has had a lot of interesting aspects that are worth noting. First, INEC got most of the money that it requested to conduct the elections, nearly $480 million, which will be used for direct capture machines of voter information in the registration process, voter education, setting up the nearly 120,000-140,000 or more polling places, and deploying both people and resources. Reportedly 360,000 staff are needed to conduct the elections.

Secondly, President Jonathan signed the new 2010 Nigerian Electoral Act on August 20, 2010, ending a fair amount of uncertainty on whether the election will be in January 2011 or April 2011, and finally setting the stage for INEC to decide when in the next 150 days there will be a turning point election for Nigeria. I have been calling this a "Must-Do" election because of the rallying cry of the nation to hold credible and transparent polls. If you are counting both fingers and toes that means the election date should be set before the end of August – only a few days away. There is still a debate out there (and a few legal suits) as to whether President Jonathan has to assent to the constitutional amendment (see blog-itrrs: The Africa Post on constitutional debate) passed in late July 2010, before they are enforce. Despite these suits things appear to be progressing in the direction that the amendments are in force, which call for an election to be held no later than 150 days from Nigeria Democracy Day – May 29, 2011. So this mean, January 2011. INEC’s new Chairman, who all agree is a committed and dedicated Nigerian with integrity and skills, has a lot on his plate, most notably the eyes of the nation and the international community.

However, we must not forget the politics of the day as political parties decide on their next moves. The ruling Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) seems to have figured out how it is going to handle it north-south zoning issues; there is the new Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) - a merger of two parties; and, other political groups are holding meetings to build coalitions.

We all look forward to an election date being announced in the coming days and we continue to encourage the new INEC Chairman as he puts in motion people, resources, manages the politics, and determines the next election steps for this dynamic country of 150 million people as the clock looks like it is ticking toward a January 2011 election. The U.S.-Nigerian Binational Commission will meet this week to have informational meetings on the U.S. Government-UK funded election technical assistance.