Nigeria's 2019 Final Election Results: Key Factoids, Links to Sanders Feb 20-25, 2019 Election-Related Interviews

Highlights of Key Factoids on the outcome of Nigeria's recently announced final results of the 2019 presidential election are noted below. The country’s Independent National Electoral Commission, or INEC, made the official announcement late in the evening on February 26, 2019. Links to Dr. Sanders'  February 20-25, 2019 election-related media interviews several days before the final results were announced appear below at the end of the blog. What is key now is the quick post-election factoids, which are:

• All Progressive Party (APC) incumbent President Mamadou Buhari, 76-years-old, defeated his main rival, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, with a margin of nearly four million votes.
• Abubakar's People's Democratic Party (PDP) has rejected the result.
• Turnout was 35.6%.
• February 16, 2019 postponement of elections until February 23, 2019 disappointed many voters, increased political rhetoric, and there were incidences of violence in the northeast, and southern parts of the country, including attacks and burning of ballots of election day February 23, and burning of INEC offices before the February 16, 2019 election postponement.
• No independent observer has cited electoral fraud, and despite the election being marred with violence and ballot box theft or burning, including the unfortunate loss of life, thus far most outside/international observers have not stated that these issues materially affected the results; we will need to wait and see if this holds.
• Buhari's All Progressives Congress (APC) won in 19 of the 36 states while the PDP was victorious in 17 states and in the capital, Abuja.
• The APC had 15.2 million votes while the PDP had 11.3 million
• Buhari announced, after his victory he would increase efforts to improve security, the economy, and fight corruption
• 84 million registered voters, approximately 72 million voted – postponement from February 16, 2019 to February 23, 2019 could have played a big role as a result of attrition or disappointment
• 42 million young voters, unsure of how many of those actually participated in the 2019 elections
• 14 million first-time registered voters, again unsure how many of those participated in the 2019 elections
• February 16, 2019 election postponement reportedly cost the Nigerian government ½ day’s GDP, roughly between 1.2-1.9 billion USD$
• Key issues for the new administration remain the same: improve the economy, provide jobs (particularly job creation/entrepreneurship opportunities & initiatives for women and small businesses (known in region as small & medium size enterprises, SMEs) for its large young population, address the poverty many of Nigeria's citizens face (particularly women & youth), provide better health and education services, further reduce insecurity both food and physical security issues in the northeast, central (herder-pastoral issues) and Niger Delta regions, along with continuing the fight against corruption.
• Election Results Map*
• Buhari statement after re-election: https://www.legit.ng/1224445-president-buharis-full-victory-speech-declaration-by-inec.html

Ambassador Sanders on the  Elections in Senegal - Straight Talk Africa, VOA https://youtu.be/7AM_cZFJ52U

Ambassador Sanders: Nigerians Are Resilient - Straight Talk Africa, VOA https://youtu.be/2OzcHQqHE0I
Dr. Sanders on Al Jazeera Televison - Newhour - http://mediaview.aljazeera.com/video/lZ4yOZpEUE
Dr. Sanders on China Global Television Network - https://america.cgtn.com/2019/02/25/the-heat-nigeria-elections

 

*https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-47380663
Buhari statement after re-election: https://www.legit.ng/1224445-president-buharis-full-victory-speech-declaration-by-inec.html

FEEEDS Series Blogspot

Nigeria's President Buhari: Not On Anyone’s 100 Day Clock – A Look at His Current Economic & Anti-Corruption Efforts

This two-part FEEEDS Blog Series on Nigerian President Buhari’s time in office (on the eve of his UN visit) provides an analysis of his game plans (Buhari Doctrine); how they are working thus far, and what we might expect as his administration tries to address issues surrounding both the country's economic and security environments.

We start with, Part One, examining the positives and challenges in the economic-investment sectors for a country which boast having Sub-Saharan Africa's (SSAfrica) largest population (178 million) and economy (Nigeria rebased in 2014), although it is struggling to get its financial footing back, and keep investors engaged. Here is today's environment:

-- Key source of revenue and foreign reserves – from the oil sector – has been hit by massive drops in world oil prices;

-- Unemployment remains high (hovering around 7.6 percent) in the 15-34 median age range, where youth and female populations clock-in at around 60 million and 80 million respectively;

-- Devaluation pressures remain high on the country's currency (naira); raising cost for the private sector and daily living needs.

Despite these economic struggles, Nigeria is still considered a go-to frontier capital market; and, remains one of the most important investment destinations in SSAfrica along with Kenya, South Africa, and Ethiopia. It is important to keep in mind that most – not all – of the current economic challenges pre-date the May 29 inauguration. However, that being said, it is now Buhari's Administration's responsibility to both address and resolve.

A Closer Look - Current Business & Investment Environment:

The private sector from China, United States, India, Brazil, and Europe still see Nigeria as a premier investment destination. What makes Nigeria attractive for these foreign businesses? Answer…return on investment (ROI).  The average ROI, (despite risks noted below), can average 28-36 percent -- matched with Nigeria's largely untapped consumer market for good and services. There are specific sectors which provide the greatest returns and/or are growth areas for goods and services. There are seven sectors (not in priority order), from FEEEDS' perspectives that are the most notable for foreign investors:

1.) Power – Nigeria partially-privatized its power sector (generation and distribution) in 2013, giving foreign investors an opening. With this, other attendant opportunities were also created for soft and hardware, and skills transfer (i.e. equipment, metering, asset management, and technical assistance). Nigeria barely produces 2-3 thousand megawatts per day. While, daily power needs are estimated at 40-50 thousand megawatts for consistency in service delivery. Although potential ROI is great, so are risks around poor transmission to the national grid, heavy debt service on acquired national assets, lack of technical production capability, and concern over timely  payments.

2.) Information Communication and Technology (ICT) - Nigeria has the largest number of mobile phone users in SSAfrica with 100 million out of 650. Any ICT investor focused on innovative mobile services, and smartphone hardware, can take advantage of Nigeria’s market. Smartphone penetration is only 27 per cent, as most Nigerians still primarily have feature phones.

3.) Natural Gas – Nigeria has roughly 180 trillion cubic tons of untapped natural gas – making it one of the largest in the world.  This nascent sector remains ripe for services, infrastructure, and developing  gas fields.

4.) Agriculture – About 70 per cent of Nigeria's population lives and works in this sector. It remains underserved as it lacks infrastructure, modernization, insufficient commodity production or food processing, and poor rural-to-urban transportation services. All of these sub areas are good investments; high ROI will be a bit delayed given how far behind the sector lags. But if you are playing the long game this is where to be.

5.) Manufacturing - Nigeria has the odd triangulation of a low manufacturing base, large population, and a growing middle class consumer market all at once. Thus, manufacturing of any product (non-edible or edible) will have ready-made customers.

6.) Extractive industries – Extraction of fossil fuels (petroleum) remains Nigeria’s main export resource, despite low world oil prices. Nigeria also has a wealth of other natural minerals from iron ore (200 million tons of proven reserves), coltan (key for cellphone and appliance manufacturing) gold, silver, zinc, etc.

7.) Housing – There is a 17 million affordable  housing deficit. Meaning if you are poor or unemployed you either do not have adequate housing or housing at all. Although, the sector is ripe for investment, the government will need to move forward with frameworks that provide some form of sovereign guarantees. This will help spur construction financing and mortgage guarantees – two key impediments, thus far, affecting building starts. Nigeria’s new (2013) Mortgage Refinance Corporation, NMRC, also needs these two issues addressed so it can begin to support projects meeting its mission. To date, NMRC has not had a case/project it can approve.

Doing Business in Nigeria – What You Should Know?
Despite the opportunities and high potential for ROI, what are the basics you should know, particularly regarding ease of doing business, and the lack of consistent (and by some accounts unclear and unfriendly) monetary policies. Recently the World Bank 2015 Ease of Doing Business Report  rated Nigeria low, 170 out of 189 countries reviewed on their transparent and friendly business practices. In 2014 Nigeria was ranked 175, so it has improved a bit. Nigeria’s Central Bank (CBN), in its efforts to support the country’s floundering currency -- the naira, under devaluation pressure -- has made it increasingly difficult for both foreign and Nigerian businesses to do transactions in convertible currencies such as dollars or euros. That being said, the positives on this action are: Nigerian companies have to provide the CBN with foreign company business information and contract payment amounts in order to obtain foreign exchange to pay partners or clients. This is an important transparency element in the anti-corruption tool box for both the country and foreign partners.

Buhari required by September 15, all ministries use their CBN accounts, called Treasury Single Account, for all government monies. Meaning, ministries cannot deposit government funds into commercial banks – a past practice where it is believed substantial state wealth disappeared. Ministries’ compliance thus far has been good.

Always in Nigeria there is a flip side. The Nigerian commercial banks, previously holding these funds now have to scramble to find new business to counter huge losses resulting from these transfers. Banks already have started to lay off employees adding to the 7.5 per cent unemployment rate. Most affected will be bank workers in the mid-ranks in their prime wage earning years (25-35).

On the federal budget, reports are Nigeria will move to a clean-slate 2016 "zero-basing," linking needs and costs, and that Buhari's "look ahead" focus will be on infrastructure development, social needs, manufacturing, and job creation.

President Buhari’s  Anti-Corruption Efforts; Economic Team:
FEEEDS also gives Buhari high marks for his unwavering commitment to address endemic corruption. In addition to his above actions, he has publicized his personal wealth (good first tone-setting step); appointed new leadership to the problematic National Petroleum Company (NNPC); worked to carefully vet senior appointments; and, asked foreign governments, including the U.S. to help return $150 billion in stolen state wealth. He is famously known for saying “I belong to everyone; I belong to no one,” underscoring his intolerance for the two forces of evil behind stolen state wealth – corruption and influence peddling.*

For sure Buhari inherited nearly empty national coffers, a struggling currency, coupled with ever-declining world oil prices. However, he is being very systematic and thorough in the formulation of his new government.  This includes deciding who his economic team will be and how they will address current economic issues. We will have to wait for finance minister appointment, and what the full economic vision might be. There is a little ankle biting that he is going too slow ("Baba Go-Slow" or Father Goes Slow, nicknamed by some) to appoint ministers. We also have an additional underlying theory: he may not want to have to negotiate with ministers on vision and direction, putting everything in place first, and then handing them his game plan.

Either way, FEEEDS gives him high credit for taking his time. As deep as the two evils of corruption and influence peddling run, it is prudent to carefully vet. Buhari never put himself on the artificial, but politically-expected “first 100 days” clock. Okay, 8-9 months from now, we might take a different view. Let’s get good, unencumbered folks (from past or present questionable deeds) on board, and go from there.   

Buhari said he would be "steady" in truly setting the tone for a new, reborn Nigeria to achieve its full economic, investment, development, democracy-leadership roles, so given what he inherited, let's give him more time to get there.

Part Two will focus on Current Political-Security Positives & Challenges

*From Buhari's Inaugural speech
A FEEEDS Blog Spot

Nigeria’s New President Lays Out “The Buhari Doctrine”

Nigeria's New Leader:
President Buhari

May 29, 2015 – date of the power shift, paradigm shift, political shift marking the New Democratic Dispensation for Nigeria and its people. May 29, 2015 ushered in in a New Nigerian President – General Muhammadu Buhari --   who gracefully, but emphatically laid out his change-agent strategies for Africa’s most populous country. As he spoke before an enthusiastic inaugural crowd at Abuja’s Eagle Square, it was clear that he was further outlining things he had previewed, in what FEEEDS® is calling “The Buhari Doctrine.” His speech was a mission statement, road map of where he wants the country to go, how to get there, and the fortitude required of the nation to make real, sustainable change happen. 

Buhari – after complimenting the statesman-like transition behavior of outgoing president Jonathan – kicked into high gear with phrases FEEEDS sees as defining statements as to how he will govern: “I belong to everybody, and I belong to nobody,” and the “past is prologue,” the intensity of these words were not lost on anyone:

-- Influence peddling and corruption will not be tolerated;
 
-- Post-election political animosity needs to be set aside so the country can move forward.

Buhari has been on a 12-year mission for change, which includes several presidential bids. So now the mission is a Government Administration with Nigeria in a different “league of democratic nations,” setting an example for Africa, and all evolving democracies. The Buhari Doctrine set forth focuses on the core goals of reducing poverty, improving political conditions and diversifying the economy:
 
1.) Strengthening security in the Northeast and relationships with neighbors in fighting Boko Haram. (Buhari thanked Chad, Niger, and Cameroon for being good allies);

2.) Improving plight of internally displaced by Boko Haram;

3.) Working on a range of sectoral reforms, particularly in the oil sector and on hot button subsidy issue;

4.) Re-establishing good education and health systems;

5.)  Encouraging the private sector to expand job creation for young people;

The inaugural crowd called Buhari “Baba” (meaning Father-Leader) as they reveled in the 4-hour historic moment -- setting aside momentarily worries about one of the worse fuel shortages Nigeria has ever seen.
  
Sensing the need to manage mission with implementation, Baba Buhari added the watch words "patience and time" to his inaugural speech to manage expectations from his countrymen and the international community as he will need lots of both to fix, correct, and improve challenges outlined above.

It seems President Buhari’s had truly taken on the father figure of the nation as his message was part counsel, vision, and a preview of his leadership style. There is a Nigeria he envisions, one that functions better economically, politically; where Nigerians honor each other; which has a vibrant civil service; and where there is discipline. Yes, he was a military ruler; yes, he came to power in a coup (1983-1985); and yes he was removed by a coup.  This does not diminish his inaugural message, his 12-year doggedness to become president, and his mission to be true to Nigerian voters.  He wants a mature democracy that includes action against corruption, impunity; and a democratic philosophy for Nigeria’s future built on transparency. Nigeria has already turned a page, deepening its democracy with the 2015 election, and May 29, 2015 transition.

One interesting take-away of the inaugural activities was they reflected the diversity of Nigeria. They were inclusive: regionally, ethnically, religiously, and surprisingly, to some extent politically. In attendance, were a fair number of previous ruling party (PDP) stalwarts, Muslim and Christian leaders, activists, academics, media, and captains of industry. It was one of the most inclusive events Nigeria has had in a while – an important early achievement of Buhari’s victory. Yes, sour grapes do remain within PDP, but some (not all) dusted themselves off following post-election shock, and behaved as conciliatory as former president Jonathan.

It would be hard for any fair-minded person not to support the notion of every Nigerian having the opportunity not to live in poverty or fear, providing there is no intent on harm, human rights violations, or abuse. Democracies are not about one voice, but "inclusiveness" (all political and religious views, ethnic groups, women, youth, disabled, civil society), albeit fairly, constructively, transparently, and without malice.

The hard part will be the first 100 days, the first year. However, there are a few positives which are worth recapping. Nigeria is:

-- Africa’s largest economy;

-- World’s seventh largest populated country;

-- Only nation having 100+ mobile phone (important for business and education);

-- Premier African investment destination;

-- Africa’s third largest middle class at 30 million;

However, the list of challenges, on top of security and corruption, are a lot longer. With this New Dispensation comes the responsibility to "lean forward" more vigorously to:

·      Reduce poverty, as about 60 per cent of Nigerians live on naira 290 a day ($1.25), with same number facing food security;

·      Address education. Nigeria has world's largest number of children [10 million]not in school; children under 15 are 44 percent of population; 39 percent of Nigerian adults cannot read or write;

 

·      Improve  health and provide housing to the 17 million without shelter;

·      Expand SMEs from its current 17 million;

·      Create 1.8 million jobs yearly from current 1.2 million to outpace poverty and keep pace with population; 

·      Secure energy-fuel needs, including rural electrification;

·      Focus on women and at-risk girls from education to financial inclusion as they lag on all human index well-being indicators.

 Changing any of the above will improve the life of the average Nigerian. The peaceful transition is just the start and we need, as the international community, to do all we can to support President Buhari and Vice-President Osinbajo to implement their positive mission for the nation.

 

A FEEEDS blogspot