A FEEEDS Series
Ambassador (Dr.) Robin Renee
Sanders, Furman University, Greenville South Carolina, April 2013
Title: Africa 2013: The Positives and the
Challenges Ahead
Sub-Saharan
Africa (SSAfrica) today is not your mother’s Africa. It is a region which
continues to undergo for the most part positive political and economic changes.
Many more of its 48 countries
are embracing democratic change, holding free and fair
elections, and moving forward as key players on the global stage. This does not
diminish the serious challenges that remain in certain parts of the region.
But, every world region has tough issues today, including the U.S., as we grapple
with some key economic and social issues.
However, we do not swipe our nation with a negative cloth because of
these transformative issues, but see them as a part of our effort “to strive be
a more perfect nation” (one the most seminal phrases to me in the preamble of
our Constitution).
Thus, I believe sub-Saharan is doing the same thing – striving to be a more
perfect Continent. And, major
transformation does take hard work and can also take time. Thus, we should
allow for that same kind of perspective when it comes to the Sub-Saharan African
region. Many nations are moving forward
on economic growth in a fairer manner, engaging transparently, globally and
with realistic expectations.
My remarks this evening will provide you with a framework on the positive
things about Today’s Africa, and also
put some of the challenges you hear about such as lack of good governance,
corruption, and the rise of fundamentalism in West Africa into perspective. Most
Americans focus primarily on the negative; I am here to provide a more balance
view, a more balanced lens about Today’s Africa, beginning with the positives.
Then we will take a look at the challenges within that context.
I will focus on Sub-Saharan Africa, although what has happened in North Africa
over the last 2 years does have a bearing on the region, particularly as
regards to jihadist conflicts in West Africa stemming from links with Al Qaeda
affiliates in Algeria, Yemen, and Somalia.
Let’s Begin With The Positives:
Sub-Saharan
Africa has a “value-chain”
contribution to both the Continent and the global community. "Value chain," in this context
means that the progress that each African country is making will have a
positive political and economic ripple affect both globally and Continent-wide.
Political Pluses:
So
what are the political pluses? They are less
far and few in-between than you might think.
There are a number of countries that have made democracy, transparency,
and free and fair elections the order of the day. In fact last week President
Obama hosted presidents from four of these nations – Sierra Leone, Cape Verde, Malawi,
and Senegal) at the White House because
of the huge democratic transitions that have taken place in their countries, particularly
Sierra Leone. If you remember it was not too long ago in history that this
country was best known for its conflict diamond war, racked with brutal human
rights atrocities such as massive limb amputations, child soldiers, and serious
humanitarian crises. Today, Sierra Leone has had 2 back-to-back successful free
and fair elections, and life there is marked with both improved economic and
social development in addition to embracing democracy as a tradition.
Also
last week we saw one of Africa’s oldest independent nations – Kenya – finally
have a modern day election that has been declared free and fair with so far
minimal ethnic violence in its wake, unlike the last two. Although the free and
fair election of President-elect Kenyatta poses some new paradoxical challenges
for international relations (including for the U.S.), as both he and his
running mate have been indicted by the
International Criminal Court (ICC)
for violence
associated with the 2007 election. I set
that aside from this election because I am talking about democratic processes not individuals. It will be for the ICC and the
Kenyan people to determine the way forward out of this paradox and for other
countries to determine how they will engage with President-elect Kenyatta.
Further
political pluses have been seen throughout the region from 2010-2012 onward as many
of the region’s countries became of age with some 11
countries holding transformative presidential elections.
Nations ranging from Benin, Cape Verde, Ghana, Madagascar, Niger, Nigeria, and Liberia
to Senegal, the Seychelles, Republic of Somaliland (chose by a Federal
Parliament) and Zambia.
There were of course those countries which held elections during that same time
period that still face uphill, in my
view, on moving from a closed governance framework to a multiparty or more
open election processes (e.g. Angola, Cameroon, Rwanda, Uganda and Zimbabwe).
There are others who held reasonable elections such as the Democratic Republic
of Congo, but face ethnic violence in the aftermath, and continued security,
humanitarian, and human rights challenges in parts of the country.
In
Ethiopia, we will need to see what happens there with new Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, who
took over after the death of long time strong man. And in Cote d’Ivoire, it overcame major
obstacles by the international community and the people of the country pushing leader
Laurent Gbagbo to accept in 2011 the democratic
winner of the election Alassane Ouattara; Gbagbo now
faces charges before the ICC for violence associated with the elections. Kenya had an election this month that eventually was declare free and fair, but
signs continue that ethnic violence is on the rise as a result of the
outcome.
All
of this is to say that there are solid nascent changes that show that many
nations in Sub-Saharan Africa are on the right track on top of those such as
Botswana, South Africa, Namibia, and Mozambique, which have had democratic
traditions now for decades.
Let’s Look @ The Economic Pluses
On to the economic
news: Here are some key areas of the
economic pluses in the SSAfrica region:
Ø Positive
Economic & GDP Growth Rates for many countries;
Ø Increase
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI);
Ø Increase
in establishment of Equity Funds & Investments; and a,
Ø Reset of Capital Markets in the region
Some of you might be aware that of the 10 fastest growing economies in the
world today, seven of those are in sub-Saharan Africa. Botswana, for example,
has maintained a double digit growth rate for the last 10 years; Ghana is still
projected to be the fastest
growing economy in the region 2013 at 8 percent; Mozambique,
Nigeria, Rwanda, Angola, and Zambia enjoyed high
single digit growth last year in the 5-7 per
cent range, with projections to stay on course in 2013 (The African Post, TAP - http://bit.ly/rB8PWx).
last_year).
Economic stories by leading media and research
institutions in 2012 from the Economist,
Financial Times, to McKinsey all have highlighted the checklist above about Africa’s Rising economic leadership,
especially when the rest of world is struggling. But as we enter 2013, let’s
recap the headline: 7 of the world’s 10 fastest
growing economies are in SSAfrica. (http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/africa/lions_on_the_move)
In
fact, I have been urging (on my blog) the re-coining of the term BRICs which
focuses on the economic prowess and growth rates of Brazil, Russia, India,
China and in Africa only South Africa to the word BRICA
in order to be more inclusive of the success and influence of other African
nations that are enjoying positive growth rates at 5% or more. Hence, the “A”
in BRICA represents for me these other high-GDP African countries, in addition
to South Africa (which has a projected 3.5 per cent GDP), leaving room for
others Africa nations to be included in this club as they progress forward.
The
5th BRICS summit in Durban, South Africa just concluded last week which
spotlighted the economic importance of the Africa region. All BRIC presidents
attended, including China’s new President Xi Jinping, and 15 African Heads of
State. Some key factoids of note:
BRICS Represent:
ü 25
per cent of FDI from Russia, China and
India goes to Africa;
ü 25
per cent of the world’s economy/GDP is from BRICS countries
ü 17
per cent of global trade
ü 50
per cent of global economic growth
ü $200
billion trade value among BRICS
BRICS Initiatives:
ü BRICS
are creating a Development Bank focus on
infrastructure, with a common currency pool to assist with development and
loans as an alternative to IMF and other international financial institutions;
ü BRICS
Development Bank would seek to have $100 billion in capitalization;
ü China
to give Africa 20 billion in loans over next few years;
ü BRICS
Business Council and BRICS Think Tank ideas further developed; and,
ü China
and Brazil discuss a $30 million currency swap
Thus,
there is a wave of economic growth and development for Africa’s emerging
markets at a time of global economic downturn or slow recoveries in Europe, and
in the U.S.
On
top of the BRICS-related news, the average 2012 collective growth rate for
SSAfrica is hovering between 6-7%, with The Economist
and World Bank
forecasting this to be the case for the region over the next 20
years.
The
World Bank
is also projecting for 2013 a collective average growth rate for SSAfrica of
5.8 per cent, possibly remaining in that range over the next 20 years (http://www.economist.com/node/21541015) http://allafrica.com/download/resource/main/main/idatcs/00051538:9f55d42de8ee71d4c25d7d57ff6e28f0.pdf
Foreign
Direct Investment (FDI) on the Continent at the end of 2011 had risen to over
$68 billion with projected FDI estimates for 2015 reaching more than $150
billion (VP Africa World Bank speech
2/25/11; 2011 US FDI is $48 billion up from $41billion in 2010 ). China
(infrastructure) and India (ICT/manufacturing) respectively are leading the way
on both FDI and trade, with Brazil, Canada, and Japan not far behind. The U.S.
still lags, but has picked up its game in 2012, and will hopefully continue in
this trend in.
Meanwhile, the Wall
Street Journal notes that there are more than 79 investment funds which have
been created in recent years exclusively focused on Africa paying 5-6 times
earnings after taxes, depreciation, and amortization with projected 2011
year-end estimates of funds raised at over $8-10 billion.
Reset of Africa’s Capital
Markets:
Africa’s capital
markets are just now getting the attention they deserve. From Zambia to Nigeria, and Namibia to
Senegal, these emerging and frontier markets are doing well. Foreign
institutional and private investors are looking for growth areas to combat
Europe’s downturn and America’s snail-like recovery, and have recognized Africa
as the place to be (http://bit.ly/AFmarkets). Stock market indexes in Uganda, Rwanda,
Nigeria, Kenya, and Namibia are up 33 per cent in 2012 in local currency terms.
Other Key Economic
Factoids:
ü Collective
projected GDP is expected to reach $2.6 trillion by 2020 (http://usa.gov/mccgdp);
ü Debt
dropped from 82% to 59% of GDP over the last
5 years;
ü Inflation
dropped Continent-wide from 22% to 8%, with many countries now in
low double digits in this tough global economy;
ü The Middle
class is approximately 331 million people, translating
into growing consumers with purchasing power;
ü Households
discretionary income is projected to rise by 50 per cent over next ten years (http://usa.gov/mccgdp);
ü African
Diaspora remittances are up over the last 5 years adding to GDP growth,
according to informal channels, accounting for 73 per cent of the world-wide total remittance since 2005
(http://tinyurl.com/Diaspora-Remittances);
ü Africa
today also remains one of the two regions of the world that has the most
remaining arable land and available water resources, followed by Latin America.
These positive
economic indicators definitely call for a reframing of Sub-Saharan Africa, as a
multi-dimensional region with both positive stories, and challenges.
The Other Side of the
Coin: The Challenges
Despite the economic
news, and real changes on the democracy and governance front for a number of
Africa countries; there is the other side of the coin – the Challenges – that
need real politick analyses and solutions.
Long lasting
solutions are needed that do not call for the annihilation of one group or
another. The old public diplomacy tool about building “mutual understanding”
(which is a not do-as-I-say-discussion, but a real conversation) among
disparate groups about contentious issues needs to come back in vogue. There
are some key challenges that transcend the entire region. Despite the positive
news that I outlined above, topping the list of challenges on the
socio-political, economic and development scales are:
I. Socio-Political:
Ø
Democracy,
Governance, Human Rights -- We have seen over the last 18 months pressure
on some fragile African democracies which underscores that the
institutionalization of good governance still needs to be stronger over and
above the number of countries which I noted above which are on the right track .
Ø
I do not know if some of Sub-Saharan Africa
will eventually have its own version of the Tunisian-Libyan-Egyptian Arab
Spring call for change. If so, I would hope that it is peaceful and defined by
Africans– as the citizens of these remaining fragile countries demand
democratic governance supported by local non-government organizations, and through
social media.
Ø
Here I am using the broad sense of
governance to include freedom of the press, association and protecting
universal human rights, particularly to help empower the Continent’s estimated
500 million women. (NB: Varying exact figures, but sites such as www.bit.ly/AFwomen note
that females make up 48-50% of the Continent-wide population).]
Ø
Corruption
and Transparency - are next: Many of the countries that are faring well
with their positive macro-economic factoids, still have challenges in these two
all-important democracy pillars. On Transparency International’s (TI) Corruption
Index for 2011 of the 183 countries ranked, only 3
SSAfrica countries (Botswana, Namibia, and South Africa) where mid-rank 4.0-6
on TI’s upward 10 point scale. In 2012 TI used a 0-100 upward scale, only 5
SSAfrica countries where mid-ranked (Botswana, Cape Verde, Mauritius, Rwanda,
and the Seychelles) (http://www.transparency.org/cpi2012/results)
Ø
Transparency in the
extractive industries remains one of the biggest issues. According
to a April 25, 2012, report by U.S. auditing firm KPMG, bribery, theft and
other kinds of fraud cost African governments and companies at least $10.9
billion in 2011 (NB: KPMG said it arrived at the figure after scouring
English-language news reports and databases of fraud cases from 2011.
II. Economic Challenges:
Poverty, lack of food security, educational
and employment opportunities are at the top of list of economic challenges for
Africa.
Unfortunately many people
of Sub Saharan Africa, despite living in resource-rich countries, are not
benefitting from the economic boom, and remain impoverished,
struggling with health and education issues, unemployment, and their countries failing
to meet the UN’s Millennium Development Goals. Parts
of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) for 2015 are to improve the lives of
50 percent of Africans living on $1.25 to $ 2.00 per day down to 29 per cent.
With three years to go toward the MDG deadlines, we are not near these goals. (http://www.vice.com/read/is-this-the-century-of-africas-rise-1)
Ø Poverty - For
most Africans the macroeconomic pluses I noted above have not reached the
masses as the majority of the Continent’s nearly 1.5 billion people continue to
live on $1.25 to $2.00 per day. According to the UN, despite sub-Saharan
Africa’s economic growth, the increase in per capita has only been from 2.7 in
2011 to 2.8% in 2012. Thus, despite the economic gains and economic boom, the
Continent is not growing at sufficient levels to make a significant dent in
poverty for the average African. The minimum
rate needs to be 3% per capita just to inch above
the poverty line (http://bloom.bg/AFpoverty).
Ø The
region’s growing population (expected to reach 1.9 billion in 2030), high food
and energy prices, the need for better access to basic and secondary education
and good health services are key. There are reportedly 133 million young people
in the region who cannot read. Youth and women are the most affected by the poverty
indicators noted; thus on every sector of development youth and women must be
at the center. Some
good news: In 1981 about 21% of the world population reported an improved
quality of life; today 46 per cent of the world’s population reports an improvement
in quality of life.*
Ø Economic
income disparity - Of the countries with
the largest economic income disparities in the world, four of them are in
Africa (South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana), with South Africa reportedly
leading the way having the world’s greatest inequitable income distribution. Forty-three
percent of the world’s
population lives on less than $2.50 per day, and in most of Africa it is less
than $1.00 a day. By 2020, one million more people in the world will be pushed
into poverty on top of the current 3 billion -- most of whom live in Africa.*
III. Subsets
of Poverty: Food Security, Development, Lack of Education & Employment.
Ø According
to 2011 World Hunger and Poverty Facts,
of the 925 million hungry people in the world 239 million live in sub-Saharan,
26 per cent of this figure are children (http://bit.ly/wldhunger). In West Africa
alone 8.2 million children are affected by food security or are malnourished.
Ø These
are staggering numbers only outpaced by the Asia and Pacific region with 578
million people facing daily hunger. These are all heart breaking stats, in
spite of the world’s ability to produce enough food to feed everyone, according
to FAO.
Although there is a resurgence in the focus on agriculture by
many African governments, past neglect in the sector over the last 30 years, by
governments and international institutions, has helped lead to the current
situation. Therefore the region has to play catch-up at the same time its
population is growing at an enormous rate in parallel to rising food and energy
prices. Remember
it is not just about food availability, but nutritional and adequate food
amounts.
Ø Development – A Myriad of Issues: Lack
of education and strong health services; the need for the right kind of
agricultural development (including improved use of water, land, and renewable
energy); improvement in infrastructure, access to electricity and transport;
and, regional trade are all challenges for the region. Improvement in rail, infrastructure
(particularly electricity), and trade are next on the list. Connecting Africa
both infrastructurally and with trade between and among nations are key to
further sustainable development.
Ø Employment: Lack of job creation and education are the other
legs to the poverty stool, but the main emphasis may not need to be just on
traditional jobs or traditional education, but on entrepreneurial
opportunities, SME development, vocational training and capacity building
programs alongside of traditional education. No donor today, in my view,
focuses enough on SME, vocational or entrepreneurial training, or works
vigorously enough with the African Diaspora.
IV. Security: Rise of Jihad-ism, Insecurity
& Clash of World Views:
As regards to the challenges in the region, I started talking
about the socio-political and economic challenges first because in some respect
they are the fundamentals of some of the insecurity we see in the region,
particularly for the countries that immediately border North Africa such as Northern
Nigeria, Mali, Niger, and parts of Somalia.
In
some countries these insecurity issues are connected to political issues, lack
of opportunity and the resource-related problems noted above. Other security
issues include transnational threats such as drugs and human trafficking – with
forced labor being one of the biggest human rights issues in the world.
All
of these subset issues provide a fertile ground for a range of things: the rise
of jihad-ism in certain countries like Mali, parts of Nigeria, Niger, and
Mauritania, and Al-Shabaab remnants in Somalia.
In
other places these subset challenges cause ethnic conflict sometimes further driven
by political differences and economic
disparities (such as in Kenya’s post-election violence, Tanzania’s Zanzibar,
instability in Guinea Bissau, South Africa’s mining-related violence, constant fighting
between the two Sudans, and the recent coup in Central African Republic last week
led by military leader Djotodia).
On
the rise of Jihadism, certainly, in Mali, Northern Nigeria, and Niger and other
countries in the western Sahel we have seen evidence of the role and support
that Al Qaeda affiliates such as AQUIM (Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, based
principally in Algeria), Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (based principally
in Yemen) are playing, and have played in Somalia.
Many
countries in the region have porous borders and fragile security institutions which
cannot adequately monitor these activities, but improvement on some of the
demographics I noted above , particularly education and food security as well
as stronger internal security agencies, regulations, customs and border
institutions Might help.
But
in my view these staggering demographics are not the entire picture: I do believe from my experience on the
ground that there is also a Clash of World
View or Civilizations at hand, a philosophical difference of values, meaning
what is right and what is wrong is at their core seen differently.
This difference is important to recognize as the things we see as
important are not part of their perception or the world they want. We need to keep in mind that they feel as
strongly about their world view as we do.
The question is how do we go about
helping to address the insecurity, improve the enabling environment, and/or
co-exist with the jihadist, providing we can find a way for them not to do us
harm. That is – if this is remotely possible even if it may not be desirable.
There may not be good options here, but I am calling a coexistence and containment (C2) option may be our best
short-to-medium term bet.
I think we need to better understand
their issues, goals, and our challenges. We do not appear to have a viable
long-term strategy to deal with what we are facing, and, we need to. The
reports that we are talking with the Taliban I actually think are good because
we are not going to be able to understand their human cultural differences if
we do not know them better. I would argue the same for the other groups. I also
think part of that understanding for us is to realize that we may not agree.
However, can we coexist without planning to kill each other?
I am all for fighting back against people
intent on doing us harm, but the first order for me is to better understand
both the challenges and the world view differences. If we do this we might be
able to identify some shared values or create ones that might reduce
tensions and the threat – but mutual understanding has to be part of the
solution. Do we have to go to war always to win peace and security? These will
be the key questions for all of in the U.S. as seek to address this growing
rise in Jihadism in the region.
In concluding, the list of positives and challenges I have
outlined is by no means exhaustive, but provide some strategic points for you
to consider as we all try to work together to create shared values to support
the region’s efforts to move forward on all fronts – democratically,
politically, and economically.
*(3/4/13 - CCTVnews Africa report - Terryanne Chabet).
