Wednesday, February 27, 2019

Nigeria's 2019 Final Election Results: Key Factoids, Links to Sanders Feb 20-25, 2019 Election-Related Interviews

Highlights of Key Factoids on the outcome of Nigeria's recently announced final results of the 2019 presidential election are noted below. The country’s Independent National Electoral Commission, or INEC, made the official announcement late in the evening on February 26, 2019. Links to Dr. Sanders'  February 20-25, 2019 election-related media interviews several days before the final results were announced appear below at the end of the blog. What is key now is the quick post-election factoids, which are:

  • All Progressive Party (APC) incumbent President Mamadou Buhari, 76-years-old, defeated his main rival, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, with a margin of nearly four million votes.
  • Abubakar's People's Democratic Party (PDP) has rejected the result.
  • Turnout was 35.6%.
  • February 16, 2019 postponement of elections until February 23, 2019 disappointed many voters, increased political rhetoric, and there were incidences of violence in the northeast, and southern parts of the country, including attacks and burning of ballots of election day February 23, and burning of INEC offices before the February 16, 2019 election postponement.
  • No independent observer has cited electoral fraud, and despite the election being marred with violence and ballot box theft or burning, including the unfortunate loss of life, thus far most outside/international observers have not stated that these issues materially affected the results; we will need to wait and see if this holds.
  • Buhari's All Progressives Congress (APC) won in 19 of the 36 states while the PDP was victorious in 17 states and in the capital, Abuja.
  • The APC had 15.2 million votes while the PDP had 11.3 million
  • Buhari announced, after his victory he would increase efforts to improve security, the economy, and fight corruption
  • 84 million registered voters, approximately 72 million voted – postponement from February 16, 2019 to February 23, 2019 could have played a big role as a result of attrition or disappointment
  • 42 million young voters, unsure of how many of those actually participated in the 2019 elections
  • 14 million first-time registered voters, again unsure how many of those participated in the 2019 elections
  • February 16, 2019 election postponement reportedly cost the Nigerian government ½ day’s GDP, roughly between 1.2-1.9 billion USD$
  • Key issues for the new administration remain the same: improve the economy, provide jobs (particularly job creation/entrepreneurship opportunities & initiatives for women and small businesses (known in region as small & medium size enterprises, SMEs) for its large young population, address the poverty many of Nigeria's citizens face (particularly women & youth), provide better health and education services, further reduce insecurity both food and physical security issues in the northeast, central (herder-pastoral issues) and Niger Delta regions, along with continuing the fight against corruption.
Ambassador Sanders on the  Elections in Senegal - Straight Talk Africa, VOA
Ambassador Sanders: Nigerians Are Resilient - Straight Talk Africa, VOA
Dr. Sanders on Al Jazeera Televison - Newhour -
Dr. Sanders on China Global Television Network -


Saturday, February 16, 2019

Postponement Of Nigeria's General Elections Until February 23, 2019

Nigeria's 2019 Elections: Voting Factoids As Polls Open Within 24hours - Its A Young Voters' Election!

 FEEEDS Blogpost below was written prior to announcement February 15 by Nigeria's Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) to postpone the general elections until February 23, 2019

As Nigeria's 84 million registered voters prepare to go the polls in Nigeria's 36 states, in addition to the politics, desire for peaceful elections, and concerns about securing in certain areas of the country, there are some basic election factoids, that we need be aware of as Africa's most populous country begins 2019 election day in less than 24 hours from now.  Many of these voter and voting factoids will have an impact of vote count given that 2 of Nigeria's six regions have the largest number of registered voters.  Previous February 14, 2019, blog on Nigeria's election entitled Nigeria's Election & Beyond, " focused not only on the implications for this year's elections, but also the challenges and opportunities for Nigeria beyond the elections. In addition it is important to have a fuller picture of how regional populations and their respective registered voter numbers will both affect the dynamics and the outcome of this important election:

Some Quick Country Facts:
-- Population stats on Nigeria can be wide ranging, but no doubt it is the Africa Region's most populated nation with research numbers ranging from 190-195 million people in 2019.* Since Nigeria has not had an official census since 2006, for a number of political and ethnic reasons, the most recent research figures on the country falls within this range, although the 200 million figure was recently reported by media, but as of yet, no research source that supports that figure as of today (February 15, 2018);

-- Nigeria is politically and economically zoned into "Six Geo-Political Regions" - Northwest, Northeast, Southwest, Southeast, and South-South, and along with these is the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). These regional breakdowns are important because of where certain ethnic and political allegiances might lie and the respective size of their the regional populations. But in this election, this breakdown is even more important because it will be key to examine the following:  where the largest number of registered voters as well as the largest block of young people are; where the difficult human indicators (meaning poverty indicators) are; and, where and how these figures might effect the outcome of this election. President Buhari, of the All Peoples Congress Party (APC) is 76 years of age, and the main opposition presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar is 72. Their platforms to boost jobs, cut corruption, encourage foreign investment, address problems with infrastructure, power, energy, etc., and improve security are not that different from each other, although the former has a current record which can be examined, and the other a historical one from having served as the country's vice president from 1999-2007. Here are some answers to the above questions on why regional breakdowns are going to be key**:

-- Northwest (where current incumbent, President Buhari hails) has greatest number of registered voters for this election with over 21 million;
-- Southwest (where the current vice president, Oluyemi Osinbajo is from) follows with 16 million registered voters;
-- Northeast (where the leading opposition candidate from the People Democratic Party (PDP) Atiku Abubakar is from)  has one of the smallest number of registered voters with slightly over 11 million;
-- Southeast (where the opposition vice presidential candidate, Peter Obi, is from) has 10 million registered voters
-- South-South has 12 million registered voters;
-- North-Central has 13 million registered voters; and
-- Federal Capital Territory (FCT), location of Nigeria's capital, Abuja, has 1.3 million registered voters.

Voter Profile:

Despite the large number of registered voters - some 84 million of which more than 42 million are between the ages of 18-35 years, and with the Independent Nigeria Election Commission (INEC) establishing 176,996 polling places (including for IDP's), the mood in the country among older voters appears to have turned more apathetic in the last six months, on top of some being worried about security in their areas, particularly in both the Northeast and Northwest regions, albeit, for different reasons. In the Northeast, it is gang and militia-related, and in the Northwest it is Boko Haram-connected. There are security concerns in the South-South and Southeast linked to various Niger Delta groups, or peri-groups, but not to the extent that security issues persist in the Northern areas. Voter turnout will be paramount, critically by young voters, as Nigerian election law calls for  a candidate to win at least 25 percent of votes cast in two-thirds of the states. Equally important, this will be a young voters election.

So where are most of these young voters concentrated? Yes, you guessed it  -- in the Northeast and Southwest -- where the largest number of registered voters exist.  This election -- despite the political rhetoric and platforms -- will come down to arithmetic and arithmetic by region based on the young voter, and young voter turnout. Whomever wins, will have won as a result of their turnout numbers, their desire to see their country move forward more  in every social, political, and economic aspect, and their reasoning as to which candidate can do it -- not only better, but faster.

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** CGTN Africa Live, Ddeji Bades, February 15, 2019, 1p.m.
**numbers rounded to nearest million

Thursday, February 14, 2019

Gallup Interviews Dr. Sanders on Nigeria Upcoming Elections & Issue Beyond Elections

Interview Questions by Gallup &; Article first published by Gallup on February 13, 2019, and republished in*

"A Conversation With Robin R. Sanders CEO-FEEEDS, former U.S. ambassador to Republic of Nigeria, Republic of Congo, and U.S. Permanent Representative to ECOWAS "

What has changed in Nigeria since the last election?

Over the course of the past two elections, particularly in 2015, Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has greatly improved its ability to execute and administer elections, including preparations, cleaning up election rolls, improving voter registration and education processes (especially with young voters), and establishing a fixed timetable for both the presidential and governors' elections, and even encouraging up throughout pre-election week registered voters (via text and media) to get out and vote. There are 84 million registered Nigerian voters, of which 42 million are between the ages of 18-35 years of age, the biggest block of the current voting electorate.**

Equally important, Nigerian citizens are demanding and expecting their leaders to respect transparency and hold free, fair and peaceful elections because they know it can be done in their nation, and they expect even more so for the 2019 elections. A peace accord was signed February 13, 2019 among the presidential candidates which called for non-violent election.

Furthermore, civil society, as a stakeholder, is more active in its election watchdog role, adding its voice to ensure transparency in every step of the process (for example, registration, holding Election Day parallel vote tabulation, and calling for a peaceful election and post-election period).

Then there is the press. Nigeria's media have always been dynamic. But what one sees over two decades is a sophistication in established media outlets. They too contribute to the calls for improved democratic processes. This doesn't mean there isn't sensationalism in the press (as
there is elsewhere), but the well-respected, established media outlets (inclusive of respected television, print, radio, online outlets) have played a positive Fourth Estate role in the last decade and will do so this election.

What are Nigeria's biggest challenges or opportunities this year? The next decade?

Nigeria is reportedly a country of more than 190 million people and growing, with most of its population younger than age 35. That being said, I see Nigeria's large, young population as an opportunity for the nation's future, but that opportunity must be taken advantage of and harnessed. Meaning, that job creation -- note I am not saying the word "employment," but job creation -- is going to be key.

What is the difference you might ask between the two -- job creation and employment? Well, think of one as digital (job creation) and one as analog (traditional 9-to-5 employment). Job creation includes traditional formal jobs, but more so developing entrepreneurs and small business, referred to in the region as small and medium-size enterprises or SMEs, with a specific focus on women, young girls and skills training.

I spent the last two years researching the impact and potential of SMEs on the region's growth and development in my book, The Rise of Africa's Small and Medium Size Enterprises. The data there, including some from Gallup on how people feel about starting a business in their country, show that with job creation through SMEs/entrepreneurs comes an emphasis on training, technology and the use of new educational platforms (e.g. online courses).

The Africa region will have the largest working age population in the world around the year 2035, according to the IMF.*** A large part of that population certainly will be in Nigeria. But the region has hard development issues, as does Nigeria. It will be important for the region to see certain elements as part of the same four-legged stool for growth, stability, democracy and development to thrive, and to provide opportunities for its young people.

For Nigeria, these elements include improving health, education and infrastructure; addressing poverty and food insecurity; further combating corruption; and improving and managing security. The latter point includes Boko Haram as well as Sahel climate change issues, which exacerbate historical and traditional pastoral and herder tensions in the central regions, producing more conflict, which can and has devolved into further political/ethnic tensions.

These are challenges for Nigeria to resolve to have a sustainable, enabling environment for development and to provide opportunities for its young people. Some security progress has been made in the Northeast over the past two years, but there are a series of pockets of instability which remain, young girls are still missing, and many internally displaced persons (IDPs), remain displaced, or are food insecure -- although some IDP-focused projects exist, and INEC has done a lot to register and establish IDP polling sites, and these efforts for IDP's are good things.

On corruption, Nigeria has made important inroads in addressing illicit enrichment, demanding more transparency in government accounts, reporting of personal assets and money transfers, and working with foreign governments to return stolen monies to Nigeria's treasury -- with some success.
Clearly more can be done to reduce corruption. But I like to remind people that this is not the whole story of Nigeria, and I get dismayed when the country's story gets reduced to this single (albeit important) issue, or just to the challenges.

This is a vibrant nation, with a vibrant, growing, creative, business and entrepreneurial population. These are the good news stories. Furthermore, its democracy and election processes have improved, and all of us who are friends of Nigeria want to see continued progress in these areas, especially during the upcoming 2019 elections, which we hope are peaceful, and beyond.

**Voice of  America, Africa News Tonight, stream broadcast, Tune-In, February 11-12, 2019; INEC
*** International Monetary Fund. (2015, April). Sub-Saharan Africa - Navigating headwinds. Retrieved July 24, 2016 from

Article updated February for TAP Blog

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